Markets

Italy

Market Characterization for Portugal

In 2025, Italy ranked as the 9th largest source market for Portugal in terms of overnight stays (share: 3.5%) and ranked 7th in terms of guest numbers (share: 4.3%). In 2025, the Italian market recorded approximately 848,500 guests (year-over-year change: -1.5%), who generated 1,969,600 overnight stays (year-over-year change: -1.4%). It stands out as the 11th-largest market in terms of tourism receipts, with €724.8 million (share: 2.5%), up 3.3% compared to 2024.

In terms of overnight stays, Lisboa was the main destination for Italian tourists visiting Portugal (44.1%), followed by the Norte (19.8%) and the Algarve (12.8%). By type of accommodation, hotel stays predominated (62.2%), followed by alojamento local (24.1%) and hotéis-apartamentos (5.9%).

The airlines that transported Italian tourists to Portugal were: TAP (share: 38.1%), Ryanair (36.8%), EasyJet (15.8%), Wizz Air Malta (8.0%), and others (1.3%). Most trips originated in Milan (share: 43.0%), followed by Rome (32.3%), Venice (7.6%), Bologna (5.6%), Naples (3.4%), and others (8.1%).

According to SIBS data, Lisboa accounts for 48.1% of the €151.5 million in card spending originating from Italy in 2025. The Norte ranks second (share: 18.8%), followed by the Algarve (12.9%).

2025 Position | Year-over-Year Change

Guests 0.8M 7º | -1.5%

Overnight stays 2.0M 9º | -1.2%

Tourism receipts 733.2M€ 11º | 3.4%

Disembarked passengers 1.8M 5º | 9.5%

Market Profile

Change 25/24

58.9 M Population

-0.1 %

63538.0 USD GDP per Capita

3.5 %

1.6 % Inflation Rate

0.5 pp

23.4 % Savings Rate

0.0 pp

Italy is a country in Central Europe with a population of 58.82 million in 2024 and was the 9th largest economy in the world.

According to Globaldata, in 2024, Italy was the 8th largest tourist market in the world, generating 38.4 million trips, accounting for 2.4% of total global tourist demand. Around 88.1% of tourist flows are concentrated on the European continent. The main regions sending Italian tourists to Portugal were: Milan (share: 44.9%), Rome (23.2%), Venice (10.6%), Bologna (7.7%), Pisa (3.0%) Naples (3.0%), Florence (2.0%), Turin (1.8%), and other cities (3.8%).

In turn, 65.5% of trips abroad made by Italian tourists in 2024 were by air; 27.4% reported traveling by land; and 7.1% by sea.

Team

Market Team Coordinator

Marcelo Rebanda

Info.Italy@turismodeportugal.pt

00390200629010/50

Outlook

The latest data from the IMF indicate that Italy’s economy grew by 0.5% in 2025, reflecting an unfavorable international environment, including the conflict in Ukraine, the Middle East war, and rising energy costs as well as other raw materials and intermediate goods. Similar growth is expected for 2026 and 2027, at around 0.7%.

According to estimates from GlobalData, international outbound trips by Italian tourists are projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.9% between 2025 and 2029, reaching a total of 45.3 million trips in 2029. Spending by these tourists abroad is expected to increase at a CAGR of 7.4% over the same period.

Based on estimates from OAG (Schedules Analyser), and considering the Winter 2025 season compared to 2024 for the period from October 1, 2025 to March 31, 2026 (+4.6%), the following number of available airline seats from Italy to key European destinations is forecast: Spain: 5.9 million seats (+4.2%), United Kingdom: 4.0 million (+5.3%), France: 3.8 million (+0.1%), Turkey: 1.0 million (+6.3%), Portugal: 1.0 million (+3.1%), and Egypt: 950 thousand (+28.5%).

According to data from Amadeus, passenger flight forecasts from the Italian market to Portugal for the period April 2026 to March 2027 point to a decrease of 3.3% compared to the same period in the previous year.

For the 2025 winter season compared to 2024, covering the period from October 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, the following number of available airline seats from Italy to major European destinations is projected: Spain: 5.9 million seats (+4.2%), United Kingdom: 4.0 million (+5.3%), France: 3.8 million (+0.1%), Turkey: 1.0 million (+6.3%), Portugal: 1.0 million (+3.1%), and Egypt: 950,000 (+28.5%).

According to Forwardkeys data, its forecasts for flights in terms of passengers originating in the Italian market to Portugal for the period from November 2025 to February 2026 point to a decrease of 8.3% compared to the same period the previous year.